For Recessionwire this week, I wrote about Wachovia’s prediction of the recession’s end in six months. The Wachovia report was based largely on consumer spending, so I pointed out that this isn’t really a reliable indicator these days now that people are actually trying to live responsibly within their means and are thinking about their future financial well being according to the Commerce Department. That said, Wachovia isn’t alone in projecting economic expansion in the second half of 2009. Other organizations like The World Bank, Federal Reserve and National Association for Business Economics are also predicting recovery this year. In the end, I ...read more

I wrote another piece on when the recession may end for Recessionwire. I talk about the World Bank’s projection of a subdued recovery where global demand stays dormant and unemployment remains rampant throughout 2010, and why the projection could be false and why it could be true. I include thoughts on global economic stimulus programs, China’s projected GDP growth, shakiness of investor confidence and how all of this compares to the weather. ...read more

I posted my first econ piece for Recessionwire late yesterday about Jeffrey Lacker’s projection of when the recession will end.  He’s the Richmond Federal Reserve Pres, and I point out how a prediction based primarily on U.S. indicators is myopic and needs to incorporate the global economies.  I talk a little about the G-8 summit, record unemployment rates in the EU, bank repayments to the U.S. government and some recent stats on growth in China since the roaring dragon may lead us out of this mess. I may start contributing to this feature semi-regularly, so send over any recommendations for predictions or stats!